Betting Systems in Blackjack – A Complete Guide

Imagine going into a game of blackjack with a system that tells you how much and when to bet to ensure a win. That sounds too good to be true, and it usually always is.

Some betting systems can work at times. Specifically card counting, which is very hard but can make big profits. However, the reality is, if a single, easy betting system could beat blackjack – the casinos would have fixed the game to stop it years ago.

Other people might sell you the dream scenario. But we’re here to take a look at the cold hard numbers, the unintuitive math behind probability and the gambler’s fallacy, and the reason why you need a large bankroll before trying some of these systems.

Blackjack Basics

In blackjack you place a bet against the dealer, or the house, that you will make the hand of cards that closest totals 21 without going over.

Source: 888Casino

The dealer and the players are dealt cards alternately. The player can stop at any time by not taking another card, but the dealer can’t until they hit 21 or over. You will be paid out a win if you end the round closer to 21. 

That is blackjack described on the most basic level. It is simple to pick up, but is more complex than it seems. So I would advise you to check out our comprehensive how to play blackjack guide for some more information on that.

Blackjack Betting System vs Strategy

If you’re not an expert gambler, you might not initially see the difference between these two terms.

A blackjack betting system is a set formula used for placing bets. It can tell you when and how much to bet in the aim of maximum profits, but it won’t tell you about any game decisions such as when to hit or stick and the best times to split or double down.

Blackjack strategy, on the other hand, deals with the mechanics of the game itself. In blackjack, the game isn’t infinitely complex, so it is essentially solved. That means there is a mathematically certain best decision to make in every situation.

This doesn’t guarantee you’ll win the blackjack house edge, but it gives you the best shot. Check out our perfect blackjack strategy calculator for more information on that.

What Are Betting Systems?

A betting system is an organized way of placing bets. It can be as simple as playing the same bet every time. Or as complex as raising each bet by a percentage of each loss to theoretically make them back when a win hits.

Because betting systems don’t usually touch on game mechanics, they can often be used across different gambling games. This article deals with using them in blackjack, but most of the systems we talk about can also be used in roulette, baccarat or other player vs house games.

Pros and Cons of Using Betting Systems

Popular Blackjack Betting Systems

There are several well-known betting systems out there that can be used in many different gambling games. Blackjack is no exception.

The most well-known is probably the Martingale system. Flat betting is the most popular, but it’s something many people do as standard without really calling it a system.

Flat Betting

The simplest blackjack betting system – you simply bet the same flat amount every round. This minimizes risk, but it won’t help you get back even any quicker if you go on a losing streak. Blackjack minimum bets at online casinos start at $1 and table limits can go up to $10,000 a hand or more.

✅ Pros: The least risky and easiest betting system, which can improve your odds compared to random bet sizing

❌ Cons: Doesn’t offer any chance of a bigger than usual win, or making up for a loss streak

Martingale System

The most well known betting system, but also the one with the most risk. In the Martingale, you double up your next bet every time you lose. The theory is that doubling up means any subsequent win will cover your previous losses. However, this is the classic gambler’s fallacy at work.

Just because you’re on a losing streak, doesn’t mean you’re more likely to get a winner. It’s not impossible you could hit 10, 20 or 30 losses in a row.

Doubling your bet just 10x from $1 takes you to $1024 and then $2048. If you’re betting $1, you’re not likely to have a bankroll of more than $1000 – so 10 losses could easily deplete your bankroll entirely.

Even if you have a high bankroll, by 10 to 15 double ups you’re likely to be over or near the table maximum bet. And that breaks the system.

✅ Pros: Simple system, can sometimes get you to break even or make a small profit

❌ Cons: Likely to deplete your bankroll over a long session, and doesn’t have potential for large profits

Paroli System

The Paroli is another simple system, based on doubling up.

Start out by flat betting. When you hit a win, double up your bet for the next. If you lose, go back to the flat bet and do that until you win. When you win again, double up the next bet, and repeat if you win again.

After three double-up wins in a row, it is recommended you bank your profit and leave the table.

✅ Pros: Simple system that can lock in big wins compared to your bankroll

❌ Cons: Relies on hitting a winning streak, and can limit your playing session time if you win early

1-3-2-6 System

This system will have you follow the above numbers as a multiple of your initial stake, provided you’re on a winning streak.

• Step One: Bet your starting wager – in this case $5
• Step Two: If you win, next time bet 3x that so $15
• Step Three: If you lose, go back to step 1
• Step Four: If you win again, bet 2x your initial bet so $10. If you lose, go back to step one.
• Step Five: Win again and bet 6x your initial bet, so in this case $30
• Step Six: Win or lose, go back to step one

Like the Paroli this system maximises wins if you go on a streak. However, unlike the Paroli, it provides some insurance if you hit a loss. It also encourages you to lock in profits of a winning streak, if you get carried away on a roll.

But, like all betting systems, you could simply lose 10 hands in a row.

✅ Pros: Can maximise wins, offers some protection against losses

❌ Cons: Slightly more complicated, still requires a winning streak

Reverse Martingale (Parlay) System

This one is similar to the Paroli, in that you double up your bet each time you win – but there is no recommended limit.

This adds much more variance, as a long hot streak can make many times your initial bet. But if you lose one, you’ll lose most of the profit you made. Only try this one if you’re comfortable quitting on a hot streak.

✅ Pros: You can win big if you hit a streak, and it isn’t as risky as the Martingale as losing streaks don’t hit your bankroll as hard

❌ Cons: Still more risky than the Paroli or the 1-3-2-6 as you have to decide when to quit or potentially lose all your accumulated profit.

D'Alembert System

The D’Alembert system sees you raise your bet by one unit when you lose, or lower it by one unit when you win. So for example:

• Bet $5 and lose
• Up it to $10
• Lose again, up it $15
• Win, and go to bet $10 next time

✅ Pros: Some insurance on loss streaks as bets remain smaller, and also less likely to deplete your whole bankroll if one does happen

❌ Cons: A long loss streak could still take your bankroll to zero, and it is the least profitable system on a win streak as your basically flat betting

Fibonacci System

This system sees you increase and decrease your bet by a number of units, following up and down the Fibonacci number sequence. 

The Fibonacci sequence, named after the Italian mathematican who wrote a book on it, is relatively simple to understand. Every number is the sum of the two numbers before. The sequence starts:

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144… and so on.

To play the betting system:

1. Choose a unit – say $5
2. Place your bet
3. If you win, go one number up the Fibonacci sequence.
4. For your next bet, ultiply that number by your initial stake. So, in this case, $5.
5. If you lose, go down a step on the sequence to a minimum of one unit.
6. Repeat.

There is no mathematical reason why the Fibonacci sequence is better for betting than any other positive progression sequence. It is however a widely known sequence that some give mystical or spiritual signifance as it often appears in nature.

✅ Pros: Slightly more conservative than the Martingale, covers small loss streaks, interesting sequence if you like science

❌ Cons: Could still deplete your bankroll on a long loss streak, requires more math memorization to follow

Advanced Betting Strategies

The following are actually mixes of blackjack strategy and a betting system. Card counting is the only blackjack betting system that is guaranteed to work – if you can do it.

Because it is very hard. It used to be easier, for example when the students from the Massachussetts Institute of Technology took casinos in Las Vegas for millions using the system in the 1990s. But casinos have since made it much harder to pull off.

Betting correlation is an extra layer to card counting that rates the potential accuracy of a card count as more cards are drawn from the shoe. It can improve your chances of betting at the right time, if you’ve already understood and practiced card counting.

✅ Card Counting

Card counting is when a player remembers what cards have been drawn from a deck. They can then use that information to determine the odds and the best time to bet. 

At its most basic form, it isn’t too hard. Using a single deck of 52 cards, simply memorize which cards have come out and use that to your advantage.

For a very basic example, imagine a single deck of cards. If you notice lots of low value cards have been drawn and fewer high value cards, it might be a good time to up your bet as there will be a higher chance of a blackjack.

Source: 888Casino

Modern card counting uses a system of points values assigned to high and low cards to help you do that. Check out our guide on how to count cards in blackjack for a more in depth look.

However, a real casino blackjack game uses an eight deck shoe of cards for 416 cards. Meaning tracking the count is much, much harder.

Needless to say, card counting does not work with virtual blackjack games. Random number generators are used to determine what card is drawn from 52 each time starting afresh. Therefore, no card count is possible.

Do Betting Systems Work?

The short answer is no. Some can result in profit in the short term. However, none of them beat the house’s edge on blackjack and therefore they are losing systems in the long run.

They may feel like they should work. But that’s because of the gambler’s fallacy which we explain below. They don’t. 

The only system that is guaranteed is card counting, but that, as explained earlier, is very hard to pull off.

✅ The Gambler’s Fallacy

The Gambler’s Fallacy is the wrong belief that previous events in randomly generated sequences have any influence on future outcomes. 

In other words, despite it feeling like you’re losing five hands of blackjack in a row was extremely unlikely and therefore you’re bound to win the next one…. it isn’t true. 

The craziest implication this has for betting systems is that, over the huge sample size of billions of hands of blackjack played since the game was invented, it is not at all impossible you could run into 10, 20, 30 or even 50 hand streaks of wins or losses as anything else.

For evidence of that, search online for “x popular gambling streamer blackjack loss streak” and you’ll find dozens of examples of seemingly extremely unlikely loss streaks.

The best way to think of this is a coin flip. Each one is 50/50. Then 50/50 again. It doesn’t matter what the last flip was, or the one before that or… you get the picture. Each one is a new 50/50 chance.

Now imagine you were to play 100 million coin flips. The law of large numbers means, eventually, the results will tend out to around 50 percent head, 50 percent tails.

But, somewhere along the line, you might get 100 heads in a row. Or a thousand. In fact, if you flipped a 100 trillion coins then you might see 50 million heads in a row, or 500 million tails.

So, let’s leave the infinite alone for a second, and get back to blackjack betting systems. The reason most of them aren’t profitable in the long run is actually simple. It’s because it is highly possible you’ll run into 10, 20 or more losing hands in a row over a long enough time period. That could easily deplete your bankroll, whatever system you use.

Which Betting System is Best for Blackjack?

• No system really works except card counting, which is very hard to do well
• Flat betting maximises your chances of staying in the game as long as possible
• The 1-3-2-6 system isn’t guaranteed but, in my opinion, offers a mix of profit potential while minimizing risk

There is no best system in reality. They all have just as much chance of winning or losing. The only one that absolutely works is card counting, which is very difficult to pull off.

So the best betting system depends on what you want from the game. If you want the best mathematical chance of winning, put your whole bankroll down on the first hand and then walk away whatever happens.

This minimizes the slight house edge of 1%. The more hands you play the more that 1% hurts your average. But it’s a play that’s both very risky yet also kind of boring.

If you want to play for as long as possible, then flat betting or the Fibonacci system is the way forward.

✅ Expert Recommendation

As someone who has played a lot of blackjack over the years, trying many of these systems first hand, my advice is: learn. Basic. Blackjack. Strategy. 

No betting system will help you profit if you concede more house edge to the casino by not making the mathematically correct play.

Oh, and also – make sure to play on standard 3:2 payout blackjack tables, and not 6:5. Because, no-one should play 6:5 as it gives the house more edge.

Other than that, if you must try a system out for yourself, I would suggest the 1-3-2-6 system. It has the least risk and can make a decent profit if you hit a winning streak. However, like all systems, it is no guarantee of winning.

Legal and Ethical Considerations

Betting systems are not illegal. Casinos know they still have their house edge so they don’t mind gamblers using systems.

Although, if you get lucky the Paroli or the 1-2-3-6 and repeatedly win before cashing out, casinos might monitor you more closely.

Card counting is the only system that could get you banned from a casino if you are good enough at it to make a consistent profit.

It isn’t illegal, and casinos won’t often mind if you try it – but if you rise to the challenge and master it well enough to be a long term winner some casinos might not want your custom any more.

Four Tips for Implementing Betting Systems

1. Remember they aren’t a sure winner – no betting system can guarantee you profit, so only bet what you can afford and don’t expect to come out with a big profit. So then you’ll be even happier if you do win.
2. Be disciplined and decisive – with many systems you have to know when to walk away. No system will save you if you’re just having a very unlucky day.
   Others need you to decide when to stop and take out the winnings from a profitable streak. Especially with systems where you bet more each time, as not walking away can deplete your bankroll after a loss.
3. Follow the rules – There is no point using a betting system and then not following it because you have a hunch.
4. While they don’t change your odds of winning, a betting system can lock in bigger profits on a win streak and up to a point cover losing streaks. Deciding to divert from the system mid streak could ruin the only point of using one in the first place.

FAQs

Is Any Blackjack System Guaranteed to Win?

Only card counting, which takes skill and hard practice to pull off. The rest do not affect the house’s edge. At best, some betting systems can make you bigger profits on a winning streak. At worst, they can deplete your bankroll in less than 10 hands if you go on a loss streak.

What is the Easiest Blackjack Betting System?

Flat betting is by far the easiest system to play, but also quite boring and barely worth calling a system. The Martingale and the Reverse Martingale are simple, but are also very risky.

What is the Hardest Blackjack Betting System?

Card counting. Which is funny, because it’s also the only one that actually guarantees a win – if you do it right. But, especially in online live blackjack, it is very hard to do.

Do Betting Systems Work in Online Blackjack?

As we outlined above, betting systems don’t work in that they won’t give you a guaranteed win. But you can use them, and if you have a lucky session they could help you win more. However, card counting doesn’t work with online virtual blackjack games using a random number generator.

Can I Use The Martingale System in Blackjack?

Yes you can. But, it is one of the riskiest betting systems to use. As it relies on doubling your bet after a loss, you could hit a very large bet within five to ten losses. Even if you have the bankroll, you might even hit the table limit and break the system. So you can but we wouldn’t recommend it. 

Is Card Counting a Betting System?

Yes and no. Card counting incorporates elements of a betting system and betting strategy. A strategy deals with in game decisions, while a betting system focuses on the size and timing of your wagers.

Card counting does both. It can inform whether you hit or stick for example, but will also tell you when might be a favorable time to put down a bigger bet.