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Blackjack has become the top choice of many card game lovers due to its favorable house edge, simple rules, and quick gameplay. However, you can quickly lose your advantage if you don’t know how odd works. This is why blackjack odd is essential. Understanding blackjack odds lets you weigh your chances and make informed moves that minimize losses.
This guide breaks down what blackjack odds mean, the odds of every scenario in 21, and how to optimize your edge. Keep reading.
- Blackjack odd is the probability of winning, losing, or tying after playing your hand. It can also express players’ expected return in blackjack.
- Odds mastery enables you to make the right move, minimizing your loss.
- The basic blackjack strategy keeps the house edge at 0.5%, while card counting may neutralize the casino’s edge by up to 1%
- Blackjack odds are variable. Playing at the right table, managing your budget wisely, and knowing when to walk away can help improve your odds of winning.
Understanding Blackjack Basics
Before we venture into blackjack odds, here is a quick refresher on how to play blackjack at physical and online casinos:
Objective and Rules of Blackjack
Also known as 21, Blackjack is a card game where players play against a dealer to get as close to 21 as possible.
The fundamental objective of blackjack is to have a natural 21 or a higher card total than the dealer. But any hand that exceeds 21 becomes a bust or automatic loss.
Types of Cards in Blackjack and Their Values
The standard type of cards in blackjack and their value include:
| Card Type | Value |
|---|---|
| Number card (1-10) | 1-10 |
| Face cards ( Jack, King, Queen) | 10 |
| Ace | 1 or 11 |
Basic Moves in Blackjack
The standard blackjack moves are explained below:
- Hit: The act of picking another card from the deck
- Stand: Staying back and not picking another card
- Split: Separating a pair into two distinct hands
- Double: Place extra bet to pick another card
- Surrender: Giving up a weak hand to regain half of your bet.
If you’re new to 21, check out our blackjack glossary to learn the various terms of the game and their meaning.
Blackjack odd refers to the chances of winning, losing, or tying after making a move (hit, split, double, surrender). It is often used interchangeably with probability and expressed as percentages. For instance, the odds of a player winning when playing at the best blackjack online casinos is 42%, while dealers’ odds of winning stands at a comfortable 49%. The probability of a tie is 9%
Alternatively, blackjack odds can also mean the expected payout from a game. For example, the odds of landing a natural blackjack (21) is 3:2. And this means that your profit is 3/2 (1.5x bet) if your card total is straight 21 (Ace + 10).
Understanding House Edge in Blackjack
House edge in blackjack refers to the amount of your bet that goes to the casino after playing for a long run. You can consider it as the casino’s slight advantage over the player. Like blackjack odds, the house edge is expressed in percentages. So, a 3% house edge means the casino will keep $3 on a $100 bet. The house edge is not illegal, either, as it accounts for casino equipment, profit, and operational costs.
The average house edge of a standard blackjack game is 0.5-2%, meaning that the casino keeps about $0.5 -$2 of every $100 stake. This is still far more generous than the average house edge of the best online roulette games (2.7- 5.26%) and slot machines (4-10%).
It is worth mentioning that the casino’s edge is not fixed. It increases or decreases based on the blackjack variation, the number of decks used in the game, players’ experience, and the game’s rules.
Probability of Key Blackjack Scenarios
Some of the common scenarios in blackjack and their probabilities include:
✅ Odds of being dealt a blackjack (natural 21)
The probability (or odd) of being dealt a blackjack (natural 21) is 1 in 21 or 2 in 48. This pans out to 4.8% odd for a pack of 52 cards. As you can see, the chances of natural 21 is relatively low, and it pays 2:1.
✅ Probability of Busting with Different Hand Values
The bust probability (chance of busting if you hit) of various hands is shown in the table below.
| Player’s Hand | Bust Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| 11 or lower | 0% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 20 | 90% |
| 21 | 100% |
The above table shows that you should always hit if you have 11 since it has a 0% bust chance. However, you stand a high chance of busting when you have 14+.
✅ Chances of Dealer Busting
The chances of dealers’ hand to bust when they add another card to their upcard are shown in the table below:
| Dealer’s Upcard Value | Bust Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| 2 | 35% |
| 3 | 37% |
| 4 | 40% |
| 5 | 42% |
| 6 | 42% |
| 7 | 26% |
| 8 | 24% |
| 9 | 23% |
| 10 | 23% |
| A | 17% |
As you can see, it’s best to stand if the dealer has a low upcard (2,3,4,5, 6) since they are very likely to bust. On the other hand, you must play strategically when the dealer has a 7+ as they stand a better chance of landing a high total (17,18, 19)
✅ Impact of different card combinations
Here are the odds of some specific player vs dealer card combination and the optimal move in each situation
Player 16 vs. Dealer 10: The odds of busting in player 16 vs. Dealer 10 are 62% to 23%. As such, surrender, if allowed since standing, is less favorable.
Players’ 11 vs. Dealer 6: The dealer stands more chance of busting (42%). So, double down (61% chance) if allowed or hit (31%) since
Blackjack Basic Strategy and Its Effect on Odds
Basic blackjack strategies are simple decision sets that tell you the correct move based on your hand, dealer’s card, and game rules. Unlike advanced strategies like card counting, the basic blackjack strategy doesn’t guarantee winning. Instead, it reduces your losses and allows you to make the most optimal decision.
Examples of basic blackjack strategy include splitting pairs and hitting when you have 16 vs. Dealers’ 10. Despite the simplicity of basic blackjack strategy, it is pretty effective and can reduce the house edge from 2% (when you play randomly) to about 0.5%
While memorizing the odds of every scenario is impossible, you can download a copy of the blackjack chart to know the most sound move to play in every hand. The blackjack basic strategy calculator is legal and allowed in some physical casinos, and the blackjack casino sites you play let it.
Card Counting and Odds Manipulation
Card counting is an advanced Blackjack strategy that involves tracking the position of various card ranks (value) in a deck to know when high and low-value cards will be dealt. This strategy lets you predict the next card to be dealt with and improve your winning chances. Card counting is one of the blackjack strategies. When appropriately deployed, as it may tip the advantage in your favor by up to 1%.
While card counting is legal, most casinos prohibit it and constantly use shuffling and surveillance to counter players.
Factors That Affects Blackjack Odds and House Edge
Blackjack odds and house edge are flexible and may vary based on various conditions, such as
✅ Blackjack Variant: American vs. European blackjack
American and European blackjack have different rules that alter the house edge and players’ odds. For example, American blackjack has a better house edge since its rules (dealer peeks at hole cards immediately if upcard is 10 or 11) save players from unnecessary splitting and doubling. On the other hand, European blackjack offers better odds since it uses fewer cards (2-6 decks) that increase your chances of landing natural 21. Check out this Parimatch to discover exciting European and American blackjack and other fantastic table games.
✅ Number of Decks: Single Deck Vs. Multi-deck Games
Blackjack games become more complex as the number of decks increases, putting the odds in the casino’s favor. For example, the probability of natural 21 in a multi-deck game is only 4.75%, compared to 4.78% in a single deck. Also, additional decks increase the casino’s edge from 0.5% in single-decks to 0.7% in 6-deck games.
✅ Rule of The Game
The house edge and odds changes based on the rule of the game. So you need an house edge calculator to estimate the advantage of games of Here are some of the most common rules of standard blackjack and their impacts on your winning chances:
- Hit or Stand Soft 17: Where dealers hit on Soft 17, the casino’s edge increases by an extra 0.2% compared to when they stand. As a result, the stand on a 17 rule favors players more.
- Surrender Rule: Where allowed, surrender minimizes your losses and reduces the house edge by 0.7%. In contrast, the absence of surrender means you will play all your hands and risk losing more.
- Double Down: Doubling down in blackjack boosts your winning chance and reduces the house edge by at least 0.25%. As a result, many casinos only allow you to double down on 9,10, and 11 to increase the house edge.
- Splitting: This rule allows you to create an extra hand by splitting pairs into two. As a result, you now get two more cards, doubling your winning chances. The ability to re-split pairs can give players a 0.1-0.5% advantage.
- Side Bets: These are extra bets on the main game. They offer higher odds (more payout) but can raise the house edge significantly.
The following are common side bets and their odds:
| Type of Side Bet | Payout/Odds | House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 2:1 | 7-8% |
| Perfect Pairs | 25:1 | 2-8% |
| 21 + 3 (Three of a kind) | 100:1 | 2-4% |
Blackjack’s diverse rules can make it pretty complicated to determine the house edge. Luckily, our blackjack house edge calculator simplifies the process for you. All you need to estimate the house edge is the number of decks and rules of the game.
✅ Online Vs. Land-based Casino Odds
Our top blackjack casinos have friendlier rules and diverse collections, allowing you to find odds that work best for you. For instance, 22Bet Casino offers many single-deck games and blackjack surrender, which promises better odds and a better house edge. In contrast, land-based casino games have a higher house edge and stringent rules that reduce players’ profit.
Tips for Optimizing Your Blackjack Odds
The following are top gambling strategies for optimizing your blackjack odds and tipping the game in your favor:
✅ Play Favorable Games
Since each blackjack variant offers different perks, you should play those with favorable features like decent payouts (3:2) and flexible rules. Generally, Single-deck European blackjack is your best choice (0.5% house edge and easy-to-count card). But American blackjack with favorable rules is also worth trying out.
✅ Select the Right Tables
Casino tables have different rules that impact your house edge. This is why you must prioritize playing at the best online casinos which offer many tables that allow blackjack charts, surrender, and re-splitting. Also, physical and online blackjack tables with European variants offer more single-deck games and opportunities to count cards.
✅ Bankroll Management
This allows you to allocate your funds wisely and get the most out of your money. Some best practices for bankroll management include using a bankroll calculator to allocate your funds, placing small bets to spread your luck across several games, and using online casino promotions to boost your bankroll.
✅ Know When To Walk Away
A game of 21 is designed so that the best blackjack sites, like William Hill, get the better edge in the long run. Thus, you must never stay too long and know when to walk away. If you’re winning, save some profits on the side. Also, remain disciplined and avoid chasing losses when things are not going your way.
✅ Learn Blackjack Best Practices
Some experts often encourage players to place insurance bets and track card orders to improve their chances in blackjack. However, these are mere myths that barely work. You must unlearn all these myths and stick to best practices like starting with free games to familiarize yourself with the paytable, playing select blackjack variants at reputable online casinos to improve your odds of winning.
Conclusion
Blackjack odds estimate your chances based on your card and the dealers’ hand. Odds mastery tells you the right move to make in different Blackjack scenarios, minimizing your losses. But, since memorizing the odds of every scenario is impossible, keeping a copy of the blackjack chart handy is the best way to figure out what you should do in each situation. Single-deck games have the lowest edge (0.5%) and are your best bet when playing blackjack.
FAQ
What Is the Probability of Getting a Blackjack?
The probability of getting a natural blackjack is 1 out of 21, or 4.84%, in a single-deck game.
Does the Number of Decks Affect my Odds?
Yes. Players’ odds of winning reduce as the number of decks increases. As such, single-deck games have better odds than multi-deck blackjack.
Can I Gain a Mathematical Edge over the Casino?
Yes. Advanced blackjack strategies like surrender and card counting can give you an edge over the casino.
How Much Does Basic Strategy Improve My Odds?
A basic strategy can lower the house edge from 2% to 0.5%, increasing your chances of winning.
What Blackjack Variant Offers the Best Odds?
Standard single-deck blackjack has the best house edge and odds. However, Atlantic City and European 21 are also worth playing.
