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Though it trails behind European football, American football, basketball, and baseball, gamblers around the globe still bet more than $7 billion on hockey last year. That much betting volume says that, although hockey is considered a niche sport, it still represents a pretty big chunk of the overall sports betting marketplace.
Betting on hockey can be very lucrative, especially since sportsbooks spend most of their time tweaking odds for football and basketball. In this complete guide, we’ll dive into the different types of hockey bets and give you the best strategies for making money on the ice.
- Even though hockey is considered a niche sport by some, it still represents a big chunk of the sports betting landscape.
- With such a grueling regular season schedule, even elite hockey teams can go through poor performance phases because of injuries and bad scheduling spots.
- Concentrating on underdogs and unders can help you increase your ROI long-term because the sportsbooks know that most of the betting public wants to bet on favorites and overs.
Essential Hockey Knowledge for Bettors
Now that you know about the different types of hockey wagers that are out there, what are the next steps? You have to learn what key statistics and pieces of information are most important to the sportsbooks.
Once you know what to look for, learning how to bet on hockey becomes easier. We’ll go over these factors in this section. If you get overwhelmed, just remember that betting on hockey can be profitable. As Doc Sports says, “The NHL is a beatable sport, whether betting sides or totals … if you pick your spots, you can turn the ice into cold hard cash.”
✅ Starting Goalies Heavily Influence the Betting Odds
Similar to starting pitchers in baseball, the biggest factor in how sportsbooks set lines for hockey games depends on whose minding the nets. On most NHL squads, there is a significant drop-off in talent from the starting goalie to the backup goalie. Because of this, it’s vitally important to confirm who is starting at goaltender for each squad.
How much of an impact do starting goalies have on the odds? More than you might think! For example, the Florida Panthers may be a -250 favorite over the Chicago Blackhawks with Sergei Bobrovsky in the net. However, the Panthers would get priced down to a favorite of around -150 if backup goalie Daniil Tarasov gets the start.
✅ Scheduling Spots
Each National Hockey League team plays a grueling 82-game regular season. During that marathon-like stretch, all teams will find themselves in rough scheduling spots. For example, a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast will be fighting jet lag, and their sleep schedules will be interrupted because of the three-hour time difference.
Another awful scheduling spot is when a team has to play games on back-to-back nights. That’s especially hard on goalies and defensemen, especially if they’re going up against a team that’s more rested.
✅ Goals For and Goals Against
These are arguably the two most basic statistics to look at when handicapping a hockey game. How many goals a team has scored is a decent measure of their offensive ability. How many goals a team allows is a good way to weigh how fundamentally sound their defense is and how well their goalies make saves.
✅ Power Plays and Penalty Kills
Power plays in hockey add even more excitement to a game that’s already jampacked with lots of energy. When a player commits a penalty, he’s sent to the penalty box for anywhere from two to ten minutes, depending on the severity of the foul.
During this power play period, the opposing team enjoys a one-man advantage on the ice. This gives them an excellent chance of scoring a goal, which is why it’s called the power play. Teams that convert a high percentage of power plays have a leg up on the competition.
On the flip side, a team’s penalty kill percentage is also incredibly vital to success. This metric measures how good a team is at limiting power-play goals. Teams that rank highly in penalty kills often have above-average defensemen and a talented goalie.
✅ Injuries and Lineup Changes
Hockey is a physically demanding game, and between fighting other players and dodging 100-mph pucks, there are lots of injuries. It’s not uncommon to see teams with multiple players on the injured list just a couple of months into a new season.
Before placing any hockey bet, make sure to analyze each team’s injury report. These can be found at most mainstream sports websites a few hours before the puck drops.
Advanced Hockey Betting Strategies
In this section, we’ll cover some of the top hockey betting strategies that you can use to build your bankroll. With games every day from the beginning of October til the end of June, there’s no shortage of betting options. However, because of the higher volume of games, it’s even more important to have a plan when betting on hockey.
✅ Fade Teams Playing on Back-to-Back Nights
Hockey is incredibly taxing on the legs, so all teams see a dip in performance when playing on back-to-back nights. According to Medium, all teams score fewer points in the second leg of a back-to-back. However, this doesn’t mean you should automatically fire on all teams that are playing their second game in as many nights.
To hit a higher percentage of your bets with this strategy, combine the back-to-back philosophy with at least one other factor. For example, if a team has to travel across multiple time zones for the second leg of their back-to-back, this is a great opportunity to bet on their opponent.
Another solid back-to-back tip is to bet against teams that have weak backup goalies. Most NHL head coaches will not start their best goalie two nights in a row. If there is a large drop-off from the starter to the backup, bet against that team. Be sure to check Daily Faceoff before placing your bets for all of the latest information on who will be in the net that evening.
✅ Consider Goal Differential, Strength of Schedule, and Current Form
There’s an awful lot of data available for folks who want to bet on hockey. This can be a double-edged sword in some ways. Having more data available helps people narrow down their analyses, but it can be tough to figure out which metrics to weigh out. The following three stats can help you narrow down your hockey handicapping process.
- Goal Differential: subtract a team’s goals allowed from their goals scored
- Strength of Schedule: available on lots of sites, including Sagarin
- Current Form: ride hot teams (6-4 or better L10) / fade cold teams (4-6 or worse L10)
These three categories can give you a fantastic look at the true strength of each team. When breaking down the NHL board each day, I want to bet on teams that have an advantage in at least two of the three above areas. In the end, though, it all comes down to price. There is a ton of variance in hockey betting, so I avoid betting on any moneyline that’s above -160.
Bankroll Management for Hockey Bettors
To truly succeed as a hockey bettor, you have to know your strengths and weaknesses. Make a detailed spreadsheet of all your wagers and find out which markets make you the highest ROI. Do you crush player props but have a hard time with moneylines? Consider betting 2% on your player props and only 1% on your moneyline wagers.
This is where responsible gaming comes into play. Set a bankroll management plan for the upcoming hockey season and never deviate from it. No matter what staking strategy you adhere to, make sure to never bet more than you can afford to lose.
If you’re concerned that your hockey betting has spiraled into a gambling addiction, reach out to GambleAware for assistance. They have an excellent team of mental health professionals who can help you get your life back. Asking for help is a sign of strength, not weakness.
FAQs
Does Overtime Count When Betting on Hockey?
Most of the time, yes, overtime counts when betting on any hockey game. However, some sportsbooks offer a regulation-only option where all bets are refunded if the game heads to overtime.
Will My Hockey Bet Get Voided if There’s a Change in Goalie?
No, unlike baseball, which allows you to list pitchers, all hockey wagers proceed as normal, even if there’s a last-minute change in goalie for either (or both) teams.
Why Are NHL Underdogs So Profitable?
Hockey is a crazy game with wild swings of variance. Because of this, the more talented teams don’t always win. This means that there’s usually plenty of value to be had on underdogs.
What Stats Should I Consider When Betting on Hockey?
There are tons of available stats for hockey bettors to dive into, but they’re not all created equal. Some of the most important ones are goal differential, expected goals, strength of schedule, current form, save percentage, and power play conversion rate.
Can I Turn A Profit Live Betting Hockey?
Absolutely! Live betting (also known as in-play betting) can add profits to your hockey betting portfolio. However, it’s best to do this only during play stoppages because online sportsbooks have access to a faster TV feed than most bettors. Waiting until TV timeouts or other play stoppages levels the playing field, so to speak.
Is the NHL The Only League I Can Bet On?
No. Although most sportsbooks offer more betting options on the NHL because of its immense popularity, most shops offer a wide variety of leagues to bet on. On most betting apps, sports investors can enjoy wagering on the IIHF, AHL, KHL, and Olympic hockey.
