How to Bet on the NFL: NFL Odds, Spreads & Strategies in 2026

When it comes to sports betting popularity, the National Football League is king. According to ESPN, legal US sportsbooks expect to accept around $30 billion in wagers on NFL games during the 2025 season. That represents about 18% of total betting volume in America, so yes, the NFL is a heavy hitter for bookmakers.

Some of the best oddsmakers in the world spend countless hours shaping the NFL betting lines, so bettors who want to turn a profit in this league have to be on their toes. However, since the NFL market offers a ton of liquidity, sharp bettors can increase their ROI in a big way.

In this how-to guide, we’ll dive into the different types of NFL bets and provide you with the top strategies you can use for growing your betting bankroll this football season. Whether you’re a seasoned NFL bettor or just getting started, this info will help you.

Understanding NFL Betting Basics

If you’ve never bet on the NFL, the long list of betting options can be a bit jarring. In this section, we’ll quickly explain each type of NFL wager. This will help you decide which markets you want to zero in on during the season.

✅ Moneyline: Just Pick the Winner

This is the best market to start with if you’re a rookie NFL bettor. With moneylines, you simply have to decide which team you think will win the game. Here’s one of my recent betting slips from a moneyline wager I placed during Week 6 of the NFL season.

Credit: BetUS

So, with this bet, I took the Kansas City Chiefs on the moneyline over the Detroit Lions. I could’ve bet the Chiefs on the -2 point spread for a little higher payout, but I wanted some added protection in case the Chiefs won by one or two points. This was a nice winner on Sunday Night Football.

✅ Point Spread: It’s Not Who Wins, but by How Much

The point spread is similar to the moneyline, but with an added layer of nuance. Instead of simply winning the game, the team you bet on has to win by at least a certain number of points. When betting the underdog, your team can lose by a certain number of points, and your wager will still cash. Let’s look at another one of my betting slips for further explanation:

Credit: BetUS

With this bet, I laid the -5 points with the Patriots. This meant that they’d have to beat the Panthers by at least six points for me to cash my wager. If they won by exactly five points, my bet would have been ruled a push, and I would have gotten my initial betting amount refunded.

Conversely, if I’d have taken the Panthers at +5, I would have cashed my bet if they lost by 4 points or fewer. Like with the above example, if Carolina lost by exactly five points, my bet would have been refunded. Thankfully, New England blew out Carolina, and this was a no-sweat winner for yours truly.

✅ Totals (Over / Under): Points Matter, Not Teams

If you don’t want to get a handle on the relative strength of each NFL team, betting on the amount of points scored may be a better fit for you. With totals, the oddsmaker will list a number of expected points for each game. Bettors will decide whether the game will go Over or Under that specific point total.

In the NFL, the majority of regular-season games have totals in the 37 to 57 range. If those potent offenses are facing off, the bookmakers may make the total in the 50s. If two defensive-oriented teams meet, the number may be posted in the 30s.

✅ Player Props

The popularity of player props has risen dramatically over the last few years due to the prominence of daily fantasy sports (DFS). These types of wagers allow gamblers to bet on certain players instead of teams. For example, instead of betting on the Cowboys to beat the Giants on the moneyline at -155 odds, you could bet on Dak Prescott to throw for Over or Under 254.5 passing yards.

When it comes to player props in the NFL, there is no shortage of options. The books know that folks love betting on the NFL, so they are constantly adding more things to the mix. For example, you can now bet on how many points a kicker will score in the game. That type of bet was unheard of just a few seasons ago.

✅ Futures

Casual bettors who like to bet a lot of long shots may enjoy betting on NFL futures instead of individual games. With futures, you can place wagers on which team will win the Super Bowl, win the AFC or NFC, or win each respective division. This type of betting can be entertaining, but keep in mind that you are tying up capital for several months before knowing the results.

✅ Parlays and Teasers

Parlays and teasers are combination wagers that offer higher payouts for folks who are comfortable with more risk. With a parlay, an NFL bettor selects two or more wagers and combines them. If all legs of the parlay win, the bettor gets a much higher payout than a simple straight bet. However, each selection must win or the entire bet is graded as a loss.

Teasers work kind of like parlays, but with an added twist. With teasers, a bettor can move the line in whatever direction they prefer. Common teaser options are 6-point, 6.5-point, 7-point, and even 10-point. This means that a 7-point favorite in the NFL can be “teased” down to -1.

However, you must select at least two legs for a teaser to be valid. Read the terms and conditions at your sportsbook because each shop has unique teaser rules.

Advanced NFL Betting Strategies

So, now that you’ve learned the different types of NFL wagers that are out there, where do we go from here? The next logical step is to learn what key factors are weighed by both sportsbooks and bettors when it comes to betting on the NFL. We’ll go over these one by one in this section.

✅ Team Stats

These are the basic stats that every NFL bettor should know and learn. Things like points per game, points per game allowed, third down conversion rate, turnover margin, red zone scoring rate, penalty yardage per game, etc, can help you gauge the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

✅ Situational Spots

Basic stats have value, but the key to long-term betting success in the NFL lies in finding the more profitable situational spots on each week’s card. For example, most teams perform worse when they’re playing their second or third game in a row on the road.

✅ Weather Conditions

Like in any sport that’s played outdoors, the weather plays a role in how NFL games play out. It may sound overly simplistic, but a 70-degree forecast with lots of sun and no wind usually means more scoring.

On the other hand, a 20-degree afternoon with 30-mph wind gusts tends to limit the amount of points scored. Because of this, always check the weather before making a bet on a total in the NFL. A good resource to consult is NFL Weather, one of the best sites around for stadium forecasts.

✅ Travel

Travel has a greater effect on NFL teams than most people realize. This is especially true now that the league is playing almost one game per week in London during the regular season.

That time zone is anywhere from 5-8 hours ahead of what NFL players are accustomed to. This has a drastic impact on each player’s circadian rhythm, so they usually aren’t as crisp in those games.

✅ Key Metrics

Key metrics are some of the advanced stats that often tell a clearer picture of how a team is performing in a certain area. For example, rushing success rate is often a better predictor of how well a team runs the ball than overall rushing yardage. Yards per play is another metric that measures how efficient a team’s offense or defense is.

✅ Injury Report

With a 17-game regular season for each team, the NFL schedule is quite the gauntlet. Because of this, there are sometimes changes to a team’s starting lineup due to injuries, illness, etc.

The best NFL bettors monitor injury reports religiously. These are released every Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday during the season, so never make a bet without taking a peek at those.

Finding Value in NFL Markets

In this section, we’ll dive into some of the most profitable NFL betting strategies that you can use to increase your ROI. With preseason games starting in August and the Super Bowl not wrapping up ‘til February, there is no shortage of profitable opportunities. Use the following tips to formulate an NFL betting plan that works for you and your bankroll.

✅ Employ the Bounce Theory

I’ll let you in on my favorite NFL betting strategy right off the bat. Look to bet on a team that lost its last game when they’re facing a team that won its last game. It sounds too simple, but it works over the long haul.

An NFL team coming off a loss often gets refocused and has a great week of practice. On the flip side, some teams get fat, happy, and complacent after a big win. Employing the bounce theory almost ensures that you’ll be betting on the more motivated squad.

Another reason why this strategy works is that the majority of the betting public overreacts to what they last saw. They see a team get blown out by three touchdowns, and they just assume that team stinks and will never win another game. Conversely, they see a team play a stellar game and they’re ready to crown them as Super Bowl champs (even if it’s Week 4).

This creates value in the NFL market because oddsmakers know that most bettors want to bet on teams that they think are “hot”. This is where we get tons of underpriced underdogs and overpriced favorites.

✅ Look for Spots to Bet First Half Unders

Most casual bettors love to bet on games to fly over the posted total because it’s simply more fun to cheer for lots of points. This means that there are sometimes spots on the betting board when betting on the Under has value.

When those spots pop up, I prefer to bet on the first half Under instead of the full game Under. A recent change in the NFL overtime rules now means that each team gets a possession. This means that more games that go to overtime will go Over the point total than in years past. Playing the first half Under takes overtime out of the equation altogether.

✅ Bet Against West Coast Teams Traveling East in Certain Spots

I mentioned in an above section about how travel should always be considered when betting on NFL games. One way to use travel in your handicapping is to look to fade West Coast teams that are traveling to the Eastern Time Zone. The three-hour time difference really messes with the West Coast players’ body clocks.

However, don’t just blindly bet against every team in the Pacific Time Zone when they play in the Eastern Time Zone. It’s best to limit these situations to 1:00 PM Eastern games only. This is the time slot that affects players from the West Coast the most because it only feels like 10 AM to them.

Responsible NFL Betting Practices

To succeed in sports betting, gamblers must always practice responsible gaming. This is especially true in a highly efficient market like the NFL. The first step is to set realistic expectations. Regardless of what you see on social media, betting on the NFL is not a way to get rich quickly.

Next, practice sound bankroll management by setting a budget at the beginning of each NFL season. Set aside an amount of funds that you can comfortably afford to lose. This is your betting bankroll. To limit your risk of losing your entire bankroll, never bet more than 1-2% of it per wager. This will help you navigate the inevitable losing streaks that happen to everyone.

Lastly, be aware of the signs of gambling addiction. If you feel the need to bet on every NFL game just for the sake of having action, or you’re constantly increasing your bet size with the hopes of “getting even”, reach out to GambleAware for help. These folks are experts at providing counseling and emotional support for problem gamblers. They can help get you back on a better path.

FAQs

Can I Turn a Profit Betting on the NFL?

Absolutely! It’s more difficult to turn a profit in the NFL because the market is more efficient than other niche sports. However, lots of casual and pro bettors consistently make money in the NFL.

When is the Best Time to Bet on NFL Sides?

Whenever you feel you have an edge is the best time to strike. However, as a general rule, it’s harder to pick winners with NFL sides the closer you get to kickoff. This is because more information comes out, and professional betting groups plunk loads of funds down. Since most pro syndicates often bet on Thursday or Friday when limits increase, I like to have all of my NFL bets made by Tuesday or Wednesday of each week.

Are NFL Player Props Easier to Beat Than Sides and Totals?

Yes, player props are much easier to beat in the NFL market. This is because the sportsbooks simply can’t keep up with each and every player on each NFL team. The oddsmakers are much more likely to make mistakes in props than in sides or totals.

Is It Legal to Bet on the NFL in My State?

Check with your local authorities or consult your state’s official website to find out if you can bet on the NFL or any sport. As of October 2025, 39 states in the US have some form of legalized sports betting, whether it be online, retail, or both.

Do I Have to Pay Taxes on My NFL Winnings?

Yes, gambling income is taxable in the US. However, you only have to pay taxes on your net profit for the year. Most sportsbooks will send out a form at the end of the year for tax purposes, or you can request one from their customer service department.

What Are the Best Resources for Betting on the NFL?

There are a couple of websites that I can’t live without each week during the NFL season. Team Rankings does a fantastic job of providing a side-by-side team comparison for each game that week. For more advanced stats like success rate and EPA, I like RBSDM.