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Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) has exploded in popularity over the last three decades. While MMA was once considered an underground novelty, that all changed when UFC was founded in 1993. The company went from a relative unknown to being worth $12 billion in a rather short amount of time.
Betting on UFC can add loads of profit to a savvy bettor’s bottom line because it’s still considered a niche sport by most bookmakers. In this comprehensive betting guide, we’ll cover the different types of UFC wagers and give you the top strategies for making money in the fight game.
- Betting on UFC can be very profitable for savvy bettors because most bookmakers are still new to pricing the sport.
- When analyzing quotes from training camp, UFC bettors must fight hard to decipher what’s noise and what’s actionable betting information.
- Focusing on live betting and mispriced props can add lots of profit to UFC bettors’ bottom line at the end of the year.
Understanding UFC Betting Basics
If you’re new to betting on UFC, it’s quite a bit different than other sports. Wagering on this niche sport can be quite intimidating if you don’t know some of the commonly used terms.
Credit: Tamas Szilagyi
In this section, we’ll quickly explain each type of UFC bet. We’ll cover everything from basic moneylines to special method of victory bets. This will help you decide which MMA markets you’d like to focus on before the next UFC event pops up on the calendar.
✅ Moneyline: Just Pick Which Fighter Will Win
Folks who are new to UFC betting should start with moneylines because it’s the easiest type of MMA wager to grasp. With moneylines, you simply have to decide which fighter you think will win the bout. Let’s take a look at the following moneyline example from an upcoming UFC event at one of the world’s largest UFC betting sites.
Credit: 888Sport
Bogdan Grad is taking on Luke Riley in a featherweight fight above. If you want to bet on Riley, you’d have to risk $300 to win $100. This means that Riley is heavily favored by the sportsbook. On the other hand, if you like Grad to win the bout, you can only risk $100 to win $200.
Here’s a real example of a moneyline bet I placed during a UFC event earlier this year:
Credit: NoVig
✅ Method of Victory: Higher Risk But Bigger Payouts
Once you get all nice and cozy with simple moneylines, it’s time to graduate to method of victory bets. With this type of wager, you’re betting on not just who will win but how they will win.
There are three ways a fighter can win in UFC: by Knockout / Technical Knockout / DQ, by Submission, or by Decision. Here are some examples:
Credit: DraftKings
Dan Hooker is a big underdog (+400) against Arman Tsarukyan. However, if you think Hooker has a chance to win, this sportsbook is offering very generous odds if you can correctly predict how he will defeat Tsarukyan.
On the other hand, Arman Tsarukyan is a huge favorite (-535). You may not want to risk $535 just to win $100. In this case, betting Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO/DQ may be a better option for you at the much better price of +140.
✅ Total Rounds: Not Who Wins, But How Long The Fight Will Go
Once you’re making money with moneylines and, to a smaller extent, method of victory wagers, moving on to total rounds (over/under) could be your next step to an even higher ROI in UFC. With total round betting, the goal is to predict how many rounds you think the fight will go.
All UFC bouts are priced with a total rounds number of 1.5 to 3.5. Sportsbooks will also attach odds to each over and under. A lot of MMA bettors like betting on total rounds instead of trying to predict who will win the fight.
✅ Round Props
Here’s another fun way to invest in your favorite UFC fighter. Instead of simply betting on who will win the bout, you can bet on what round they’ll win it in.
Using our above example, if you think Dan Hooker will beat Arman Tsarukyan in Round 1, a $100 bet will pay out $2,200. These wagers are typically tough to predict and should only be considered fun long shots.
✅ Fight Props
Fight props are relatively new, but sportsbooks are starting to get more volume on them as UFC’s popularity continues to rise. These types of bets allow you to wager on whether or not certain things will happen during the fight.
For example, a common favorite fight prop is whether or not a fight will go the distance. Other, less popular fight props include Yes / No options on whether a fight will be won by split decision or unanimous decision.
Research Strategies for Successful UFC Betting
Now that you know about all of the distinctive UFC betting options that are out there, what are the next steps? Finding value is the name of the game. You have to learn what key metrics and pieces of information will help you pick winners. This section can help with that.
✅ Learn Each Fighter’s Specific Style
The phrase, “styles make fights,” became popular in boxing circles several decades ago, but it’s often used in UFC today. Just how important is a fighter’s style? Maddux Sports, a highly successful UFC handicapping service, says,” If you aren’t spending a lot of time looking at the styles of fighters when handicapping a fight, then you are essentially guessing.”
When breaking down a fight, it helps to list the strengths of each fighter. Is the guy you want to bet on a skilled striker, or is he at his best on the mat? Will his opponent try to strike quickly and knock him out, or will he bounce around and try to frustrate him? These are just a few of the main questions that need answers before you place a UFC bet.
✅ Key Measurables: Tale of the Tape
A lot of novice UFC bettors ignore common measurables because fighters are broken up into certain weight classes. This is a mistake because things like height, reach, stance, and age all factor into which fighter has the overall edge in the bout. It pays to look at the “Tale of the Tape” and make note of any glaring differences.
For example, taller fighters often have a longer reach than shorter fighters. This is a huge advantage because it allows them to strike quickly without having to get too close to their opponents. This is especially helpful for fighters who are skilled on foot but not as confident when the fight goes to the mat.
Stance is also a big factor that often gets overlooked. Certain fighters do well against orthodox stances but have trouble getting significant strikes against southpaws. Other skilled fighters have the rare ability to switch styles in the middle of the fight, so that must be noted as well.
✅ Weight Cuts and Weight Jumps
There are 12 weight classes in UFC, 8 for men and 4 for women. Male competitors range from flyweights to heavyweights, while female fighters range from strawweights to featherweights. It’s difficult to have an in-depth knowledge of each weight class, but pay particular attention when a fighter moves into a new class.
✅ Quotes from Each Fighter’s Training Camp
When analyzing an upcoming UFC event, it helps to read as much information as possible. Sure, most of the responses from fighters at press conferences are just noisy boasting. However, there are times when you can read between the lines and find an edge that’ll help in your handicapping process.
When it comes to training camp quotes, give more weight to the coaches than the fighters. Most MMA fighters will always say, “I’m in the best shape of my life” or “I’m coming for the belt”. This is just their egos talking. However, coaches are usually more honest, and sometimes they’ll mistakenly reveal a fighter’s lack of conditioning or questionable mental state.
Advanced UFC Betting Strategies
In this section, we’ll cover some of the top UFC betting tips that you can use to build your bankroll. Since there is a new UFC event almost every weekend of the year, there are plenty of betting opportunities. However, keep in mind that no UFC betting system wins all the time.
💡 Invest in the Undervalued Underdogs
The majority of the betting public loves to bet on favorites, regardless of the sport. The average gambler thinks that favorites win more often, especially in a highly charged, emotional sport like MMA. However, the bookmakers know that most gamblers love to bet on favorites, so they put an extra tax on some of the top UFC fighters.
Because of this, seasoned UFC bettors can often find some nice expected value on fighters who are underdogs. This is especially true in specific situations. For example, I like to bet against favorites who just won by knockout in their last fight. The majority of folks automatically assume that the fighter is on a hot streak and is now worth a bet. However, the opposite is usually true.
A fighter who won via knockout in their last bout will usually be overconfident in their next outing. This overconfidence could mean that they won’t train as hard. This leads to slower reaction times, a decrease in durability, and a likely loss.
💡 Pivot to Live Betting UFC When Needed
A lot of newer UFC bettors forget that you can find plenty of good investment opportunities during a fight instead of before it. You may spend hours studying the fight card and find no value. That doesn’t mean you should just get bummed out and close all your betting apps.
Instead, keep your eyes peeled for live betting opportunities during each UFC fight. If you see a heavyweight with subpar cardio that relies on early knockouts to win, you should bet against him if his opponent survives Round 1. This is especially true if you see him already breathing heavily during or after that round.
💡 Learn to Spot Misprices in UFC Props
UFC props are highly exploitable because bookmakers often make mistakes with them. Sportsbooks have gotten better at pricing UFC moneylines and total rounds bets, but they misprice markets for Method of Victory props. That’s where an astute bettor can come in and make smart investments. Let’s look at a couple of examples.
Let’s say that two fighters with very little power are facing each other. They each throw a lot of punches, but neither one has a very high career knockout percentage. This is a scenario where you could find value in a decision prop instead of a moneyline, especially if the price is +200 or higher.
On the other hand, let’s say a fighter who’s known for their wrestling ability and grappling acumen is taking on a fighter who prefers to stay off the mat. In this case, there is usually value to be had in a submission prop instead of a moneyline bet.
Responsible Betting for UFC Bettors
To reach a higher level of success as a UFC bettor, you have to figure out which markets you thrive in. Use a sports betting app or an old-school notebook to keep track of all your MMA wagers. Do you crush total rounds but have a hard time with props? Consider betting 2% on your total rounds bets and only 1% on your prop wagers.
Betting responsibly is of the highest importance, whether you’re a seasoned UFC bettor or a newbie. Establish a bankroll management plan for the UFC calendar year and stick to it. No matter what staking strategy you adhere to, make sure to never bet more than you can afford to lose. As professional sports bettor Marc Lawrence says, “Bet with your head, not over it.”
If you’re concerned that your UFC wagering has turned into a gambling addiction, reach out to GambleAware for help. They have an excellent staff of mental health experts who can help you get your life back. Asking for help is never something to be ashamed of.
FAQs
What’s the Best Strategy for UFC Betting?
There’s not a single best strategy for finding winning UFC bets. However, the more time you spend studying the sport and analyzing fighters, the more profitable opportunities you’ll find in the betting markets.
Why Do UFC Results Feel So Unpredictable?
There’s a lot of variance in UFC, which means that even the best fighters in the world are still only one powerful punch or kick away from getting knocked out. This is different than a sport like basketball or football, where one bad play never decides the outcome of a game.
Do Odds Get More Accurate Closer to the Fight?
Yes, to a point. All betting markets get more efficient the closer you get to start time. This is because the sportsbooks adjust their odds based on the amount of total money that has come in, which fighters the sharp sports betting syndicates are placing their money on, and any type of breaking news.
What Stats Should I Consider When Betting on UFC?
It’s easy to get lost in the weeds when looking at UFC stats because there are so many of them to analyze. However, most successful UFC bettors focus on strike differential, cardio metrics, knockdown rate, knockout rate, and takedown defense percentage.
Can I Turn A Profit Live Betting UFC?
Absolutely! Lots of UFC bettors make more money betting live than before the fights start. However, it’s best to do this in between rounds because online sportsbooks have access to a faster TV feed than most bettors.
Do Training Camp Quotes Matter?
Some do and some don’t, so bettors have to be careful with how they handle this info. As a general rule, coaches are more honest than fighters when it comes to how their camp went. Most of the quotes you hear or read from camp are just noise, but there are a few key things to look for. For example, if a coach or a fighter mentions any type of style change, that could be useful to a bettor’s overall assessment of the bout.
