When to Hit in Blackjack and How It Affects Your Winning Odds

Blackjack is one of the few casino games where your action can alter the game outcome. So, you should never decide based on gut feelings but on how well the action improves your expected outcome.

One of the most important decisions you have to make in blackjack is when to hit.

The simple answer is: only hit when drawing another card will produce a positive outcome from where you are than standing.

This guide covers when to hit hard and soft hands in blackjack against different categories of dealer upcards.

How Hitting Changes Your Odds in Blackjack

Hitting in blackjack refers to picking another card to improve your hand total.

When you hit, your blackjack odds either increase (if you don’t go over 21) or decrease (when you go beyond 21 and bust).

So, you should only hit when a new draw produces a better average outcome from that position than standing

Because the blackjack rules mandate the dealer to hit until 17 or more, you can predict when they will bust based on their upcards. This fixed rule enables you to tell when to hit or stand and let the dealer bust

4 Factors That Influence Hitting Decision in Blackjack

These are 4 factors for predicting when to hit in blackjack:

Your Hand Total

Your hand can be grouped into three:

• 11 or below: These have 0% bust risk on the next draw. Always hit or double down
• 12-16: They are quite prone to busting. Always stand against the dealer’s weak cards or hit otherwise.
• 17+: Always stand 17 and above against all dealer’s cards

Hand Composition

Your hand can be either soft (with an Ace) or hard (without an Ace). You cannot bust a soft hand in the first draw. Always hit soft hands, especially when your hand total is soft 17 or below.

Dealer’s Upcards

This is the most crucial external cue to consider before hitting when learning to play blackjack.

Based on their busting rate, dealers’ upcards also fall into 3 categories: 

• Weak Hands: This includes 4, 5 & 6. The dealer has a strong busting potential when they have these hands. Stand weak hands (12-16) when the dealer displays 4-6 and make them take the fall.
• Moderate Hands: This comprises 2 and 3. The dealer may still bust, but the rate is considerably lower. Hit hard 12 against dealer’s 2&3 and always stand on hard 13+
• Strong Hands: This includes 7 to Ace. They have a low bust risk and a strong chance of beating the player. Always hit hard totals through 16 against the dealer’s 7, 8, 9, 10, Ace. Stand on 17+

Busting Probability and Expected Value in Blackjack

Expected Value (EV) and Busting Probabilities determine the outcome of your play and influence your hitting decision. Here is what they entail:

➡️ Busting Probability

Busting probability is the likelihood of your hand going over 21 (bust) when you hit. If bust risk is >40%, your hand will likely bust upon hitting, and you should be cautious of picking another card.

Below are the busting probabilities of various player hands and dealer’s upcards based on standard multi-deck probability models established across major casino industry strategy guides (e.g., Cache Creek).

➡️ Player Hand Bust Probabilities (Hard Totals)

Always hit 11 and below. Stand 12-16 against weak dealer cards. Never hit hard 17+

➡️ Dealer Upcard Bust Probabilities

Dealers stand a high chance of busting 4, 5 & 6. Always stand dealer’s 4 through 6.

➡️ Expected Value (EV)

Expected value (EV) is the average amount of money you will likely win or lose if you play a hand for a long time.

The EV of a move can either be positive or negative. For instance, a +0.8 EV means you’ll win an average of $0.8 per $1 stake if you played long enough, while a -0.2 EV means you’ll lose $0.2 from a $1 stake over time.

The lesson here is that every hand has a winning and losing potential, but the average outcome is what matters most.

So, if hitting will produce -0.5 EV and standing will produce -0.32 EV, there is a tendency to lose money regardless of your decision. However, standing is the correct play since you’ll lose less money in the long run (I.e ., it has better winning odds).

Always consider the expected value of your action when making your hitting decision.

Basic Blackjack Strategy Chart (S17 Rules)

A basic blackjack strategy chart turns optimal decision-making into a quick visual grid. Here is a basic blackjack strategy chart that gives you the optimal play for all your hands vs dealer upcard. Feel free to memorize it or print and take it with you to the casino.

Keep in mind that different blackjack tables use different rules. For example, the above chart is built for a 4-8 deck blackjack table. The dealer stands on Soft 17 (S17), and Double After Split (DAS) is allowed. Check out our blackjack glossary to catch up with the meanings of every term and play more confidently.

If you play at a H17 table, or use a different deck size, optimal plays can shift on some key hands like:

• Soft 18 (A-7) vs. Dealer 2: Stand on S17 tables. Double down on H17 tables, as the dealer’s extra draw increases their bust rate and elevates your expected return.
• Hard 11 vs. Dealer Ace: Hit on S17 tables. Double down on H17 tables, where the dealer’s increased bust probability flips the math in favor of doubling.
• Hard 9 vs. Dealer 2: Hit in multi-deck games (4–8 decks). Double down in single-deck games due to the higher concentration of 10-value cards remaining in a smaller deck.

Blackjack Hitting Decisions for Hard Hands

A hard hand is any hand without an Ace or where the Ace counts as 1 to prevent busting.

Credit: Wazamba

This is one of the most rigid hands in blackjack, and here is the optimal play when you have it:

✅ Hard 8 or Below: Always Hit

A hard 8 or below has 0% bust risk if you pick another card. Always hit a hard 8 and below against any dealer’s upcard without a second thought to improve to 17,18 or 19

✅ Hard 9, 10, 11: Double Down or Hit

In blackjack, 10-value cards (10, J, K, Q) dominate the deck and have the highest chance of occurring (16/52 or ~31%). When you have a hard 9, 10, or 11, double down and draw another card in most cases to improve to 19, 20, or 21 and easily beat the dealer. Don’t be scared of busting because these hands have a 0% busting rate on the first draw too.

There are a few exceptions, though:

• 11 vs dealer’s Ace: Hit because the dealer’s high card reduces your advantage
• 10 Vs dealer’s 10 & Ace: Hit because the dealer’s high card also reduces your advantage
• Dealer 2 Vs 9: Doubling is marginally negative against dealer 2 and strong hands. Hit against dealers 2 and 7-Ace.

✅ Hard 12-16: Hit or Stand

Recall that the probability of busting hard 12-16 is 31-62%, making this a dangerous hitting zone.

The good news is dealers also stand a high chance of busting when they have 4-6. So always stand 12-16 vs dealer 4-6 and hope that they bust.

However, dealers 2 & 3 also have a low busting rate. Hit 12 vs dealers 2 & 3 and stand otherwise. Also, stand 13+ vs all dealers’ weak cards.

The decision is quite different when the dealer has strong cards (7,8,9,10, A). When you factor in the fact that the dealer’s downcard can be 10, their hand total can easily improve to between 17 and 21, which automatically beats your 12 to 16. Even though you may bust, always HIT 12-16 vs dealer’s 7-Ace as this has better EV than standing.

✅ Hard 17 and 17+: Never Hit

A hard 17 has an alarming 69% chance of busting when you pick another card. The first thing that should come to your mind is to give up your card if you’re playing blackjack surrender. Where surrender is unavailable, always stand 17 against any dealer’s upcard and hope they bust, as this is optimally better than hitting.

17+, 18, 19, 20, and 21 are strong and can beat the dealer on a good day. The upside of hitting 17+ is low compared to bust risk. So, always stand when you have 17+ against any dealer’s upcard.

Soft Hands in Blackjack: When to Hit

A soft hand is any hand containing an Ace that can count as either 1 or 11. The duality of the Ace in soft hands makes them more flexible to play than hard hands since you’ll never bust on the first draw.

For example, if you draw a high card (9) to soft 16 (A-5), the Ace counts as 1 to prevent you from busting.

So, based on the best blackjack strategy, always double down or hit soft hands and never stand immediately.

Here is exactly how to play each soft hand in blackjack:

✅ Soft 13–17: Always Hit

Always hit soft 13 (A-2) to 17 (A-6) against every dealer upcard to improve your hand to 19+. If allowed, double down:

• Soft 13-14 against dealer’s 5&6 
• Soft 15-16 against dealer’s 4-6
• Soft 17 against dealer’s 3-6 

✅ Soft 18 (A-7) — The Most Misplayed Soft Hand

Soft 18 (A-7) is easily one of the most misplayed hands in blackjack due to the illusion that 18 is a strong hand and the fear of busting.

Of course, 18 is pretty strong. But that’s only against weak upcards. And you can never bust on the next draw with a soft hand. So the correct plays for soft 18 are:

➡️ Double Down Soft 18 vs. dealer’s 2-6

The dealer is at high risk of busting on 2-6, so always double down A-7 versus the dealer’s weak hands.

The only exception is the dealer’s 2. Double down against 2 when playing at a table where the dealer hits on soft 17 (H17) and stands if the dealer stands on soft 17 (S17)

➡️ Stand or Hit Soft 18 vs. Dealer’s 7 to Ace

The dealer is projected for 17 or 18 when holding 7 or 8, which is a tie with your hand at best.

➡️ Stand soft 18 vs dealer’s 7 and 8 

When the dealer has 9, 10 or Ace, they are projected to reach 19, 20, or 21, which beats your 18. With your zero bust risk advantage on soft 18, the worst that can happen is you pick a high card, which drops your hand value. But you’ll take pride in fighting till the end. Always hit A-7 vs dealer’s 9 to Ace aggressively and hope the dealer busts.

➡️ Always Stand Soft 19-21

Soft 19 (A-8) through 21 (A-10/J) is a strong hand with low hitting upside. Always stand soft 19+ against any dealer’s upcard to prevent spoiling a good hand.

Pairs in Blackjack: Split or Hit

Another set of hands you’ll encounter frequently in blackjack is pairs. Some pairs require splitting and hitting, while you should absolutely stand and keep others together.

Here are various categories of pairs and how to split in blackjack:

✅ Pair of 2, 3, 7: Always Split or Hit

Always split a pair of 2-7 against dealer’s 2-7. But hit the dealer’s 8 through Ace.

✅ Pair of 4 (4-4): Always Hit

Treat a pair of fours (4-4) like 8 and always hit against all dealer’s upcards. The only exception is dealer’s 5 & 6, where you should split 4-4 into two different hands and hit. 

✅ Pair of 8, 9, and Ace: Always Split

A pair of eights (8-8) is a hard 16, which is one of the worst hands in blackjack. When you split it into two 8s, they go from dangerous to strong. Always split 8s and play them as two separate hands.

The same goes for a pair of Aces (A-A). Taken together, these form 2 or 12 at best. So, always split a pair of Aces to chase two natural blackjacks.

A pair of Nines (9-9) is quite tricky. Split against all dealer’s upcards except 7, 1,0 and Ace, where you should stand.

✅ Pair of Five (5-5) and Ten (10-10): Never Split

A pair of tens (10-10) makes 20, which is a very strong hand by itself. Always stand and never split a pair of 10.

A pair of fives (5-5) also makes a strong 10. Double down against the dealer’s 2-9 and hit 10 and Ace.

How Blackjack Hitting Decisions Affect the House Edge

Blackjack house edge is the amount of money the casino retains on every bet you place. The blackjack house edge is never 0% due to some house rules that favor the casino over the player.

For instance, only the player loses if you and the dealer bust in the same round.

Credit: 888Sport

However, the house edge is not fixed either. It can vary based on your hitting accuracy, type of blackjack, and table rules.

Based on figures from Expected Value (EV) loss calculations from the Wizard of Odds Blackjack Appendix 1, here is how deviating from optimal play or hitting errors may impact your house edge:

Your house edge can be as low as 0.5% if you execute the basic strategy perfectly. Likewise, it can climb up to 1.5% or more if you make several consecutive mistakes.

3 Ways to Improve Your Blackjack Play

While knowing when to hit forms the basis of your blackjack strategy, it’s not sufficient to win. Some of the complementary tips that boost your winning odds in blackjack include:

Credit: 1xBet

1️⃣ Effective Bankroll Management

Bankroll management is crucial to surviving the inevitable dry spells in blackjack.

To overcome the storm, I always start with enough budget for at least 100 hands. So, if I’m playing a game with a $5 table stake, my starting budget will come out at around $500. Use our bankroll calculator to estimate how much funds you’ll need based on your bet size and the house edge of the game.

And to protect my money, I totally avoid insurance bets in blackjack and other risky blackjack side bets, as this can raise the house edge astronomically. Likewise, I give up hard 17 where surrender is allowed to cut my losses.

2️⃣ Favorable Table Selection

The table you play directly impacts your winning odds, payout, and house edge. Here are my personal tips for selecting tables with favorable winning odds:

• Play at tables with 3:2 Payout: Blackjack tables pay either 3:2 or 6:5. For a $10 bet, both tables yield $15 and $12 for a natural blackjack. As a result, I only play at 3:2 tables to boost my long-term earnings.
• Play at S17 tables: I also prioritize S17 tables over H17s. The S17 table reduces the casino’s house edge and puts the odds in my favor.
• Choose a table with a low deck size: The smaller the deck size, the better you can track the cards and implement your strategy. I go for a table with as low a deck size as possible to increase my winning odds.

3️⃣ Responsible Gaming

Responsible gaming teaches you discipline and patience to stick to the basic blackjack strategy in all situations.

Some of the best habits you need to succeed in blackjack include

• Avoiding Emotional Play: Emotions, either greed or frustration, can tempt you to abandon your strategy when you are losing too much or on a winning streak. But this can cause more losses in the long run. Always stick to the blackjack strategy chart in all situations to boost your winning odds.
• Don’t Chase Losses: Chasing losses can result in impulsive decision-making that causes further losses. Always trust the optimal hitting rule and stick to your blackjack betting system at all times.
• Set Loss Limit and Profit Target: Setting loss limits protects my capital on bad days while profit limits enable me to lock in my winnings. Typically, I take a session break when I lose 20-30% of my capital to replan my strategy. If I resume and lose another 10-15%, I quit playing completely for that day. My profit target is always 20-25%. After this, I withdraw part of my winnings and allocate the rest to side bets since I’m up.

Expert Opinion

George Williams

Senior Editor / Betting & Casino Expert

Adhering to your limit may be quite challenging. The best blackjack sites have time and betting limits that make it easy to track your time and spending. Activate the casino’s responsible gambling features to regulate your betting habits. If you consistently lose control, seek help from the casino’s customer support. They’ll either help you take time out of the casino. At the same time, your money remains intact, or you can book a free appointment with specialized agencies like Gamble Aware and Gambler Anonymous that cater to gambling addicts.

Common Blackjack Hitting Mistakes

The rising tension as you migrate from practice games to real money adventure makes you prone to errors. And frankly, I misplayed some hands when I was fish too, and continue to see players do the same.

Some of the hitting errors you should be wary of when playing blackjack include:

❌ Hitting Hard 17 or Above

Hard 17 is one of the trickiest hands I often misplayed when I started playing blackjack at live casinos.

To my uninitiated mind, these hands look too weak to compete. So, I always hit and end up busting most times.

After mastering blackjack strategy, I now see that 7 out of every 10 cards you hit on hard 17+ cause a bust (69% bust rate). So, as tempting as hitting seems, I now stick to the basic strategy and always stand on hard 17 and above. Of course, I’ll lose sometimes, but I win more often.

❌ Standing on Hard 12–16 Against a Strong Dealer Card

Another blackjack error players make is standing hard 12-16 against all the dealer’s upcards. This decision holds well against dealers’ weak hands, which have high bust risks.

However, you’ll lose more if you continue standing 12-16 versus a dealer’s 7-Ace. Always hit hard 12+ against a strong dealer hand to give yourself room to improve to 17,18,19,21.

❌ Always Standing on Soft 18

Standing on soft 18 against dealer’s 9,10,11 (which improves to 19 or better) is like giving away your money without any fight. 

With soft 18, your bust risk is 0%, and you have absolutely nothing to lose. Always hit soft 18 against dealer 9+ to improve to 20 or 21.

❌ Treating Soft and Hard Hands Identically

Soft and hard hands have different bust risks and require different hitting decisions.

For example, while you should almost always stand 12-16 against dealer weak hands, soft hands have zero bust risk, and you should always double down or hit A-2 through A-6. 

Expert Opinion

Christian Howells

Assistant Editor / Bingo & Casino Expert

Different hand compositions require different strategies. As such, the way you play a hard 17 made of many weak cards (2+3+4+6+2=17) is marginally different from one with high cards (9+8=17), especially when you’re counting cards in blackjack. For the latter, if you notice a high concentration of small cards in the deck, you can deviate from basic blackjack strategy (stand hard 17+) and HIT against dealer 9,10,11. This gives you room to marginally improve your hand if you land a 2,3, or 4 instead of relying on the dealer’s odds to bust.

Conclusion

Hitting or standing are the most crucial decisions you’ll make in blackjack. And our blackjack hitting decision guide has walked you through the logic behind when to hit in various hand scenarios.

Visit our gambling tools section to print the basic blackjack strategy chart and discover other assets that will improve your gambling skills. Many casinos allow using strategy chart as long as you don’t stall the game.

Up next, start practicing basic blackjack strategy for free with our blackjack trainer. Once you master the various betting options and when to hit, sign up to our recommended blackjack casinos to play free blackjack or real money games with friendly rules at affordable stakes. Endeavor to manage your funds judiciously and play safe. Good luck!

FAQ

Should I Always Hit on a Total of 11 or Below in Blackjack?

Yes. A total of 11 or below has 0% bust risk. Always hit 9 or below. Double down on 10 and 11, except against their equivalent.

Is It Ever Correct to Hit on a Hard 17?

No. Hard 17 and above has a high bust rate. You’ll lose less standing hard 17 and above than hitting.

Should I Hit Soft 18 Against a Dealer Showing 9 or 10?

Yes. Always hit soft 18 (A-7) against dealer’s 9,10, A to improve your hand. Stand A-7 against 2,7,8 and double down on other hands.

Is It Correct to Hit Hard 16 Against a Dealer Showing 10?

Yes. Always hit hard 16 against dealers 7-11.

Can I Bust on a Soft Hand by Hitting Once?

No. You can never bust by hitting once on soft hands. Never stand a soft hand immediately.

Where Can I Play Blackjack Online?

The best blackjack sites are Wazamba, William Hill, JackpotCity Casino, and Spin Casino. They offer hundreds of online blackjack games with friendly rules, side bet options, and bonuses.