I can’t wait for our readers to get to glean some industry knowledge from such a respected name in the space. I think you’ll find John’s story both entertaining and helpful. So, without further delay, let’s get into it.
How did you first get into sports betting?
John Ryan: Oh, it’s a crazy story. I was in the middle of my Wall Street career, and I was in charge of 32 crude oil traders. Every Friday in the mid 90s, we had a meeting to develop the first neural networks for trading and price pattern recognition.
Believe it or not, certain patterns do repeat historically, and to make a long story short, we found out that they do. So over time, he got me to build this little database. Then there was that eureka moment where I went, “Oh, my God, you can really do something with this in sports betting.”
Then I researched the industry, and this was back in the day, when Saturday mornings were filled with these scam shows where they’d say, “Hey, Mike, we got inside information in the locker room. The quarterback’s girlfriend just broke up with him. And this is a lock of the century.” I mean, it was just ridiculous.
I couldn’t even believe people were buying it. So I thought, you know what, maybe I can just set up a little hobby here, do it ethically, and really show people that you can hit 58% over the course of a season and turn a substantial profit.
I understand you have a background in the financial markets. Can you explain how that has helped you win money betting on sports for the past 30+ years?
John Ryan: Sentiment is one of the keys in my models. In the late 90s, I guess I probably can’t mention his name, but he’s a world-famous investor, an elder statesman in the industry. He’s on our trading floor. And essentially, what the markets are is a seesaw. So you have fear on one side, and greed on the other. And right now, you know, there’s a lot more greed out there than fear. So the seesaw goes like this, and when it gets too high and this too low, it marks the top. So that is what I’m looking for now in the financial markets.
So when you get 70%, 75%, or even 80% people being bullish, it’s a red flag. You know, the market tops, and then it crashes a little bit. And then the CNBC folks say, “Oh boy, we’re in a correction mode.” My goal is to identify the correction near the top and then take advantage of it. And some patterns happen all the time. I also scrape, using Python code, some of the data from that. So I’m fortunate to get that.
But again, when you get 70% of the tickets bet on a game and say 30% of the handle is on that team, that’s a great opportunity to fade the public. The bigger bets are on the other team. Sports betting and the stock market are very much alike.
What sports and markets make up most of your betting volume today?
John Ryan: I’m still betting all sports across the board. The NHL was one that I really didn’t put much effort into, because I really couldn’t name any players. However, I had a great feel for the analytics. That helped me become a back-to-back champion in the NHL two years in a row, and I couldn’t even name a goaltender.
So, you know, the numbers clarify, and then you just follow what it’s telling you to do. I would say it’s 95% objective, but a lot of times, like in hockey, just as in baseball, we bet a lot more on underdogs because of the juicy money lines.
That’s another key. I think the amateur makes a mistake when they assume that a -200 favorite is always going to win. What’s bad about that is that when you lose on a -200 favorite, you’ve got to win three in a row just to be profitable.
What’s the biggest bankroll mistake recreational bettors make?
John Ryan: Betting volume is always a factor because the more games you bet, the greater the chances of loss. It’s a simple fact. You can get hot and run off five days in a row of profits with seven or more bets, and you feel you start feeling like you’re smarter than the market. As soon as that happens, the betting gods and the financial gods humble you, and you go on a massive losing streak before you are reminded of how little you actually know.
I always tell people to bet with your head, never over it. You have to constantly practice solid bankroll management. That’s easier said than done. I think where people make a mistake is when things look too easy. Let’s use this week’s Eagles vs Commanders game as an example. That looks like an absolute cakewalk for the Eagles on paper, right? You see the line, and you think that the Eagles are easily going to cover the 6.5-point spread.
The Eagles won 31- 0 against the Raiders last week, and they’re playing for the division title. So you automatically think they’re going to blowout a reeling Commanders team. You think that the Eagles are a lock to win and win big. Well, that’s not necessarily the case all the time. That’s a recipe to end up losing.
We’re all adults. We should bet with discipline. It should be fun. If you’re ever watching a game and you start sweating and you start thinking, “Oh my God, if I lose this, how am I gonna pay the rent or the mortgage or the electric bill,” then you’re betting too much.
What emotional traits separate winning bettors from losing ones?
John Ryan: You have to accept that losing streaks are just part of the business. We all go through losing streaks, and winning streaks are equally as bad because they’re going to end. If you rip off seven or eight wins in a row, you then should decrease the amount you bet, anticipating that there is going to be that 0-5 day. Those days happen to all bettors, myself included. If any bettor claims to win all the time, then I would run far, far away from that particular person.
You truly have to learn what one pitch at a time means. You should never be thinking, “I’ve lost 7 in a row, I suck.” That train of thought then interferes with your objectivity when researching games. Conversely, when you’re on a hot streak, most people would tend to analyze the game less. They’ll look for more information to stop that losing streak.
The process should never change, whether you’re in the middle of a winning streak or a losing streak, but that’s easier said than done. You’ve got to accept that you’re going to have losses, and you’ve got to be disciplined with your bet size and overall volume. If you lose, you simply look forward to the next opportunity.
What should new bettors focus on first if they want to improve?
John Ryan: Find a mentor you can learn from. They should sign up for my picks service. I try to teach. I’m not just giving out picks. The research is extensive, but I always try to explain why you should trust my research and put your hard-earned money on a game. Gaining a new bettor’s trust means the world to me, and it’s not something I take lightly.
I think the analytics are very critical. I think you need to have those because if nothing else, they’ll keep you off those bad bets that you think are locks. I think if a normal person were to just track the number of times that they look at the card and they think, oh boy, the Niners on Monday night are a lock. I’m willing to bet that they’ll only win 40% of the time or less in those situations. The analytics just don’t lie. Charles Barkley likes to say, “Are you an analytics idiot?” You know, yeah, I am. I’ve actually taken courses at MIT to further my development and numbers, and I love numbers. They just work well for me.
To wrap things up, tell everyone where they can get access to your sports picks service.
John Ryan: The easiest way to get ahold of me is through my X page, @JohnRyanSports1. Send me a direct message, and I can hook you up with a couple of free days to see my research. I’d love to bring you onboard as a client and teach you how to win in this business.
