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Does Card Counting Help to Win in Baccarat?

Baccarat attracts plenty of players with its straightforward rules and gameplay. Some baccarat players have found that they can employ techniques like card counting to turn the odds in their favor and lower the house edge. Synonymous with blackjack, card counting can also be applied in baccarat. We’ll elaborate more on baccarat card counting and whether it can help you win in this casino game.

Does Card Counting in Baccarat Help You Win?

Baccarat has slightly different rules than blackjack, where counting cards is a viable winning strategy. The objective in baccarat is to place a bet on the Banker or Player hand that you believe will have a higher total value that is closest to 9 or bet on a Tie. There is little skill involved in baccarat, as you only need to place a bet on the hand you think will win.

22Bet Card Counting in Baccarat

Credit: 22Bet

Per the baccarat rules, the aces are worth 1, the number cards count their face value, and the face cards are worth 0. So, keeping track of the drawn cards during the baccarat game is taxing and less rewarding, as the benefits from card counting only boost your odds of making a correct bet by about 1%. Overall, counting cards in baccarat will not help you win, but it can help you keep track of the likelihood of a Player or a Banker bet winning the round.

How to Count Cards in Baccarat?

As we noted in the sections above, it is simple to count cards in baccarat, unlike counting cards in blackjack. Most baccarat players can count the cards in baccarat; you need to start your count with a new card shoe and start your count at 0.

A standard casino baccarat game is played with six to eight decks drawn from a card shoe; the primary goal of counting the cards is to make an educated guess which hand is more likely to win: the Player, the Banker, or a Tie.

Counting the cards that have been dealt from the shoe will help the probability of a bet to win, but because of the baccarat rules, card counting can give a tiny advantage of less or about 1%.

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✅ Basic Counting System

The basic baccarat card counting system is simple, as you don’t have to remember the drawn cards, but you need to do some simple math by adding or subtracting. First off, start with a new card shoe and start your count at 0:

  • Every time an A, 2, or 3 gets dealt, you add 1 to the count; when a 4 is dealt, you add 2. Because these are lower-value cards, they tip the odds in favor of the Player bet winning.
  • When 5, 7, and 8 are drawn from the shoe, you need to subtract 1 from the count, as these decrease the odds of the Player bet winning.
  • When a 6 is drawn from the shoe, you need to subtract 2 from the count, and when a 9, 10, J, Q, and K are drawn, you don’t take action, as these are worth 0 in baccarat card counting.

Here’s a table as a handy reference for your next play:

Card Drawn Action
A, 2, 3 +1
4 +2
5, 7, 8 -1
6 -2
9, 10, J, Q, K Neutral, worth 0

Consider the count and the number of card decks in the shoe and divide the count by the number of decks to get the true count. When the true count increases, the Player is more likely to win, and when the count decreases, the Banker bet is more likely to win.

Basic Counting System in Karamba

Credit: Karamba

For example, if the count is 45 and there are 5 decks left, then the true count is 9 and is not very high, and the odds are favorable to the Banker bet. But if your count is 45 and there are 3 decks left, then the true count is 15, which is high, tipping the odds towards the Player bet winning.

✅ Ed Thorp’s Counting System

Dr. Ed Thorp developed a blackjack card counting system that was mathematically proven, and he also created a baccarat card counting system. Per the Ed Thorp baccarat counting system, you must play several rounds for the card counting to become effective, and use different calculations based on whether you want to place a Banker or a Player bet.

  • For a Player bet: start with 0 and subtract 1 when 2 or 3 is dealt, subtract 2 when a 4 or 5 is dealt, add 1 when a 6 or a 9 is dealt, and add 2 when a 7 or 8 is dealt. You do nothing when a 10, J, Q, K, and A are dealt. If you get a high score, you can consider placing a Player bet.
  • For a Banker bet: start with 0 and add 1 when 2 or 3 is dealt, add 2 when a 4 or 5 is dealt, subtract 1 when a 6 or a 9 is dealt, and subtract 2 when a 7 or 8 is dealt. You do nothing when a 10, J, Q, K, and A are dealt. If you get a high score, then consider placing a Banker bet.
For a Player Bet – start with 0 For a Banker Bet – start with 0
Dealt Cards Action Dealt Cards Action
2, 3 -1 2, 3 +1
4, 5 -2 4, 5 +2
6, 9 +1 6, 9 -1
7, 8 +2 7, 8 -2
10, J, Q, K, A 0/Do Nothing 10, J, Q, K, A 0/Do Nothing


Overall, card counting in baccarat is not as effective as counting cards in blackjack, as it does not lead to high profits and gives a minimal boost in winning odds. Before you start counting cards, learn all the rules of baccarat, the possible bets, and winning odds. Then, if you want to test your skills, count cards using simple math and you may enjoy – and win – this game even more than before.

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How Much Does Counting Cards in Baccarat Boost the Winning Odds?

Baccarat card counting can only boost the winning chances by up to 1%. It is due to the rules of the game and the available bets, as baccarat players don’t have any influence on the gameplay but only select the hand they wish to bet on, the Player or the Banker, or a Tie.

Can I Count Cards in Online Baccarat?

The only way to effectively count cards in online baccarat is to play a live dealer baccarat game and start with a new card shoe. Also, carefully keep track of the rules, the dealt cards, and the count, and don’t forget to calculate the true count based on the number of decks in the shoe.

Can I Win My Baccarat Bet by Counting Cards?

It is possible to slightly boost your winning chances, but card counting in baccarat is not a significantly reliable strategy. We suggest you try counting the baccarat cards for fun, gauge your abilities, and after you play several rounds, try your luck with placing a bet following the suggestions of the count.

Which Hand Wins Most Frequently in Baccarat?

The Banker hand in baccarat wins about 45.8% of the time. The Player hand wins about 44.6% of the time, and a Tie happens about 9.6% of the time. Thus, following this stat, you have a good chance to win if you place a bet on the Banker, but you should know that online casinos charge a commission on this bet that varies from one casino to another, and the commission can be anywhere from 1 to 5%.

Is Baccarat Completely Random?

The baccarat outcome is entirely random, as the cards in the shoe are shuffled and drawn, and the outcome relies on chance. It is one of the more desirable casino games, similar to the random outcome in roulette, as the winning odds depend on luck rather than skill.

What Are the Good Tips for Baccarat Beginners?

Because the baccarat outcome is random and there is no particular skill necessary on your part, you can follow some of these tips when playing this casino game:

  • The Banker bet has the statistical advantage, and in the long run, this bet wins more often.
  • You can try placing a Tie bet every now and then, as this outcome happens about 10% of the time, and the playout is 8 to 1.