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Baccarat attracts plenty of players with its straightforward rules and gameplay. Some baccarat players have found that they can employ techniques like card counting to turn the odds in their favor and lower the house edge. Synonymous with blackjack, card counting can also be applied in baccarat. We’ll elaborate more on baccarat card counting and whether it can help you win in this casino game.
- Card counting can only slightly improve your winning odds at the baccarat table.
- Baccarat card counting techniques are very similar to the concepts used to count cards in blackjack.
- Always start counting cards with a fresh baccarat shoe.
- Make side bets when the count favors low cards.
Does Card Counting in Baccarat Help You Win?
Baccarat has slightly different rules than blackjack, where counting cards is a viable winning strategy. The objective in baccarat is to place a bet on the Banker or Player hand that you believe will have a higher total value that is closest to 9 or bet on a Tie. There is little skill involved in baccarat, as you only need to place a bet on the hand you think will win.
Credit: 22Bet
Per the baccarat rules, the aces are worth 1, the number cards count their face value, and the face cards are worth 0. So, keeping track of the drawn cards during the baccarat game is taxing and less rewarding, as the benefits from card counting only boost your odds of making a correct bet by about 1%. Overall, counting cards in baccarat will not help you win, but it can help you keep track of the likelihood of a Player or a Banker bet winning the round.
Challenges of Card Counting in Baccarat
In theory, card counting should turn the odds into the player’s favour as the game progresses and more cards get dealt from the shoe. The running count will create a more precise estimation of the composition of the remaining cards.
However, despite some similarities, counting cards in baccarat is not as productive of a system as it is in blackjack. The cause for this is that baccarat is symmetric. No cards offer a massive advantage for one bet type over the other. Plus, for baccarat, casinos typically use an 8-deck shoe, meaning low volatility of the edge. The decks get shuffled after each game, so all your maths is pointless for the next round.
One of the biggest challenges is that the player has no way to influence the course of the game except to choose the bet. Considering that the drawing rules for each version of baccarat get fixed beforehand, the croupier must follow the rules by default. You have no option to decline a new card or ask for one.
If conditions are right, the counter may create an advantage, but generally, the edge will be small and difficult to acquire.
Baccarat Card Counting Systems
Card counting is synonymous with blackjack, although the concept can find an application in baccarat. It’s a tactic frequently featured as a plot line in movies. Many professional players have claimed to have made millions by counting cards. Casinos frown upon the activity and can expel gamblers they think are counting cards.
There is a misconception that excellent memory is a condition for effectively counting cards. The trick is not to remember the order of each card in the deck but to keep track of the ratio of low cards to high cards. The point of the strategy is to find out which side has the advantage on the next hand. This is accomplished with the running count, a plus and minus strategy.
Over the years, several count card systems have evolved, but all start more or less with the concept presented below.
Basic Counting System
The basic baccarat card counting system is simple, as you don’t have to remember the drawn cards, but you need to do some simple math by adding or subtracting. The running count equals 0 at the start of a new shoe. As the cards get revealed, players need to add value to each card. The basic concept is to add +1 for cards 1 to 3 and +2 for 4. After that, you need to begin subtracting with -1 for cards 5, 7 or 8, but -2 for 6. Face cards and 10 stay neutral.
Having these values will help you decide if, on the following hands, the Player or Banker bet offers better chances of a win. For a Player bet, you need a count of 16+ or higher, while for a prospective Banker bet, a count of 15+ or lower is a good indicator.
Here’s a table as a handy reference for your next play:
| Card Drawn | Action |
|---|---|
| A, 2, 3 | +1 |
| 4 | +2 |
| 5, 7, 8 | -1 |
| 6 | -2 |
| 9, 10, J, Q, K | Neutral, worth 0 |
Consider the count and the number of card decks in the shoe and divide the count by the number of decks to get the true count. When the true count increases, the Player is more likely to win, and when the count decreases, the Banker bet is more likely to win.
Credit: Karamba
For example, if the count is 45 and there are 5 decks left, then the true count is 9 and is not very high, and the odds are favorable to the Banker bet. But if your count is 45 and there are 3 decks left, then the true count is 15, which is high, tipping the odds towards the Player bet winning.
Ed Thorp’s Counting System
Dr. Ed Thorp developed a blackjack card counting system that was mathematically proven, and he also created a baccarat card counting system. Per the Ed Thorp baccarat counting system, you must play several rounds for the card counting to become effective, and use different calculations based on whether you want to place a Banker or a Player bet.
- For a Player bet: start with 0 and subtract 1 when 2 or 3 is dealt, subtract 2 when a 4 or 5 is dealt, add 1 when a 6 or a 9 is dealt, and add 2 when a 7 or 8 is dealt. You do nothing when a 10, J, Q, K, and A are dealt. If you get a high score, you can consider placing a Player bet.
- For a Banker bet: start with 0 and add 1 when 2 or 3 is dealt, add 2 when a 4 or 5 is dealt, subtract 1 when a 6 or a 9 is dealt, and subtract 2 when a 7 or 8 is dealt. You do nothing when a 10, J, Q, K, and A are dealt. If you get a high score, then consider placing a Banker bet.
| For a Player Bet – start with 0 | For a Banker Bet – start with 0 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dealt Cards | Action | Dealt Cards | Action |
| 2, 3 | -1 | 2, 3 | +1 |
| 4, 5 | -2 | 4, 5 | +2 |
| 6, 9 | +1 | 6, 9 | -1 |
| 7, 8 | +2 | 7, 8 | -2 |
| 10, J, Q, K, A | 0/Do Nothing | 10, J, Q, K, A | 0/Do Nothing |
John May’s Counting System
John May’s system focuses on the Tie bet, which according to John, is the only worthwhile option for card counting in baccarat. Ties are rare but offer larger payouts. May’s philosophy is that if odd cards are not present in the shoe, then the odds for a Tie doubled. In this system, you start the count by adding 1 for every odd card. When you hit 160 on the count, it’s time to make Tie bets.
Drawbacks of Card Counting Systems
Many players see card counting as the best method to gain an edge over the casino. Despite the numerous books and success stories from players, it’s not a sure-win strategy. There are many drawbacks to using the system, and here are a few of the issues:
- Mastering the system is tricky: It takes practice to count cards confidently in a real game. And it’s not only about learning the strategy but having the proper demeanour, which will hide what you are doing. You want to avoid getting bounced on your first attempt.
- Small profit margins: The advantage offered by card counting in baccarat is small, and players using the system will cashin at a slow pace. There’s a bigger chance you will experience a loss.
- A large bankroll is necessary: Card counting is not a quick rich scheme. Even if you succeed, it will be in a small percentage per game, meaning you will have to make frequent visits to the casino to achieve a larger profit. This translates to having a hefty bankroll to fund the numerous baccarat sessions.
- Embarrassment from getting caught: One crucial thing must get cleared up. Counting cards is not illegal, but that will not discourage casinos from escorting out players dabbling in the practice. Getting caught and the drama of having security take you off the casino property is not fun. Plus, you will not get welcomed back into the casino.
Conclusion
Overall, card counting in baccarat is not as effective as counting cards in blackjack, as it does not lead to high profits and gives a minimal boost in winning odds. Before you start counting cards, learn all the rules of baccarat, the possible bets, and winning odds. Then, if you want to test your skills, count cards using simple math and you may enjoy – and win – this game even more than before.
FAQs
How Much Does Counting Cards in Baccarat Boost the Winning Odds?
Baccarat card counting can only boost the winning chances by up to 1%. It is due to the rules of the game and the available bets, as baccarat players don’t have any influence on the gameplay but only select the hand they wish to bet on, the Player or the Banker, or a Tie.
Can I Count Cards in Online Baccarat?
The only way to effectively count cards in online baccarat is to play a live dealer baccarat game and start with a new card shoe. Also, carefully keep track of the rules, the dealt cards, and the count, and don’t forget to calculate the true count based on the number of decks in the shoe.
Can I Win My Baccarat Bet by Counting Cards?
It is possible to slightly boost your winning chances, but card counting in baccarat is not a significantly reliable strategy. We suggest you try counting the baccarat cards for fun, gauge your abilities, and after you play several rounds, try your luck with placing a bet following the suggestions of the count.
Which Hand Wins Most Frequently in Baccarat?
The Banker hand in baccarat wins about 45.8% of the time. The Player hand wins about 44.6% of the time, and a Tie happens about 9.6% of the time. Thus, following this stat, you have a good chance to win if you place a bet on the Banker, but you should know that online casinos charge a commission on this bet that varies from one casino to another, and the commission can be anywhere from 1 to 5%.
Is Baccarat Completely Random?
The baccarat outcome is entirely random, as the cards in the shoe are shuffled and drawn, and the outcome relies on chance. It is one of the more desirable casino games, similar to the random outcome in roulette, as the winning odds depend on luck rather than skill.
What Are the Good Tips for Baccarat Beginners?
Because the baccarat outcome is random and there is no particular skill necessary on your part, you can follow some of these tips when playing this casino game:
- The Banker bet has the statistical advantage, and in the long run, this bet wins more often.
- You can try placing a Tie bet every now and then, as this outcome happens about 10% of the time, and the playout is 8 to 1.
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